Archive for the ‘Environment’ Category

Scientists and statisticians and their tricks

Wednesday, December 16th, 2009

In the weeks since the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, UK was hacked into, a lot of pundits  have been declaring the stolen emails to be the final nail in the coffin of climate change science.

One of the most damning emails was sent in November 1999 by Dr. Phil Jones, where he discusses using a “trick”,

“I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.”

As shocking as that revelation is, Oxford University Press actually published a textbook in 2002 with the title, “Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks” (click on image at left for more information or to order).

There must be a word ending in -gate to describe this statistical skulduggery.

It’s cold outside – must be global cooling

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

With the bone-chilling cold snap that we’ve been having here in the Canadian Prairies for most of December, it is obvious that the earth is cooling.  Here is a graph that I produced using NASA data, that provides all the proof needed:

temp2005_2008.

But on second thought, I’m remembering that November was an unusually warm month.  So the earth was obviously warming back then.

But on third thought, maybe both of the above statements are confusing weather with climate, if we accept the following definition:

Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather,” or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.

If climate requires averaging over decades, perhaps graphing four years isn’t enough.  I’ve decided to add on another 124 years:

Global temperatures 1880 to 2008.

Maybe I’ll stop worrying about that global cooling trend.

The prairie chicken is gone

Sunday, December 6th, 2009

The Greater Prairie-Chicken, a bird that once numbered in the millions on the grasslands, is now considered wiped out in Canada, scientists from the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada reported Monday.

The medium-sized grouse, Tympanuchus cupido, has not been seen in Canada in more than 20 years, according to the latest update on the species.

It is on a worrisome list of 23 wildlife species in Canada that are considered extirpated, or no longer found in the wild. It does have populations in the United States and some states, including Missouri, have initiated conservation programs to bolster its numbers.

During the committee’s recent meetings in Ottawa, it was determined that the bird has not been seen in Canada since 1987. In 1900, by contrast, it was estimated that there were at least a million prairie-chickens breeding in Canada.

(full news story here)

Browsing through some on the public comments on this news story, I was struck by a number of things:

  • Firstly, the number of people stating that the article is wrong – that there are a lot of prairie chickens still around.  This is an unfortunate result of the fact that the term “prairie chicken” is commonly used in the prairie provinces to refer to another species, the sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus).
  • Secondly, several commenters state that hunting is to blame for the prairie chicken’s extirpation.  However according to the federal “species at risk registry, the real reason is habitat loss.  Very little natural grassland remains in Canada.
  • Thirdly, the range of views on whether it even matters.  Some people feel that the loss makes no difference – it’s just a bird that was too stupid to adapt.

For the record, I think it does matter that the prairie chicken is extirpated from Canada.  I have never seen a prairie chicken, but I would love to see one some day.  Life goes on, but I believe that we are poorer  without the prairie chicken, whether we realize it or not.

Coyote bounty

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

This news story took me by surprise.

Sask. offers $20 bounty on coyotes

The Saskatchewan government is offering a $20 bounty on every coyote killed.

Agriculture Minister Bob Bjornerud announced the bounty Tuesday as part of the Saskatchewan Coyote Control Program.

The program is to help farmers and ranchers who are having trouble with coyotes killing their livestock.

Coyotes have been a perennial problem in rural Saskatchewan, but the situation has been getting worse in recent years, Bjornerud said.

“Producers … have coyotes coming right in their yards and mixing with their cattle right now,” Bjornerud said. “It’s dangerous out there for farm families that have little kids and that, when they are coming right into the yards. In some cases. they are taking the yard dog and leading him out of the yard and killing him.”

A trial version of the program will run until March 31, 2010. After that, the province will look at extending the bounty.

(Full article here)

I expect some angry letters to the editor in the next few days about us slack-jawed Saskatchewan redneck yokels.  It should be entertaining.

But actually, I have mixed feeling about this announcement.  I’m all for letting nature find its balance, but if humans are going to produce the food that we need, I think that active management of predators is required.  The coyote population is high, probably due to a combination of factors, including several mild winters and reduced hunting and trapping as a result of low fur prices.  Part of me doesn’t like the idea of a coyote bounty, but I do sympathize with my farming friends who have lost farm animals to coyote predation.

Ideally I’d like to see fur go back into fashion, but until that happens, I guess a bounty is probably a valid solution to curbing the coyote population.

At least it’s probably preferable to the mange.

Wangerinian weather

Monday, October 26th, 2009

It has been many years since I read Walter Wangerin Jr.’s novel The Book of the Dun Cow, and I have forgotten many details of that Christian allegory.  However, something that I do remember  is the dark, bleak mood created by the leaden sky, incessant rain and  soaked earth – a literary device as background to an epic struggle between good and evil.

That novel has came to mind often this month.  This is weather of Wangerinian proportions.

And it looks like it’s not about to end.

weather20091026

I know that in some parts of the world this kind of fall weather would be considered normal, but this is Saskatchewan, for Pete’s sake.  It’s supposed to be dry and sunny, and my farming brother-in-law should have more than half of his harvest completed.

By the way, I realize that Walter Wangerin, Jr. is not a household name, so this may not be something to boast about, but I think that I’m the first to use the adjective Wangerinian, if Google can be trusted.

Planting trees on the woodlot

Thursday, May 14th, 2009

On Saturday our family went out to our land, and together with co-owners Pastor Glenn & Gloria and family, we pounded in the tree and shrub seedlings that we had ordered from Shand Greenhouse.

Iain Chentunkel  dropped by and entertained us for awhile.

It was a good day.  I’ve uploaded some photos to a gallery. Click the image below for more.

Clearing trails

Monday, April 20th, 2009

With the snow almost all gone I’ve been itching to get out to our land at Shell Lake.  I knew that some trees had fallen across the trails in a big windstorm in October, so on Saturday I loaded the chainsaw and together with some helpers, spent some time clearing trails.  It was a grey, drizzly day, but it was nice to get out of the city.  Here are some pictures …

Some water and snow on the trail

The work crew beside the "wagon field"

The handful of spruce planted in 2008 have survived

The ice has broken – spring is here

Friday, April 17th, 2009

Since the kids have had all of this week off school for Easter break, I decided to take today off.  Fiona and I ran an errand, and on our way back we swung by River Street to check the ice at the boat launch.

At first glance it looked as though the ice was still holding.

North Saskatchewan River 2009-04-17 - broken

However a second look revealed that the ice was flowing downriver.  To prove it I took a short video clip with my digital camera – poor quality but enough to see the ice movement.

This was at around 11:30 this morning, so I’ll assume that the ice broke after midnight.  i.e. Linea is the icebreaker winner.  Unlike Marc, I don’t have any pilcrows to give out, so an Attagirl will have to do.

I was wrong

Thursday, April 16th, 2009

I predicted that the ice would break on April 15.  It didn’t.

As of my noon walk today (April 16), there were a lot of open areas, but there were more areas where the ice extended entirely across the river.

North Saskatchewan River, 2009-04-16, at noon

After work I wandered back down to the riverbank.  A lot more areas were open.

North Saskatchewan River at Prince Albert, 2009-04-16, about 5:15 p.m. - open patch

However there was still ice extending across the river in many areas, and the ice was not moving down the river, so I don’t think it could really be called broken yet.

North Saskatchewan River at Prince Albert, 2009-04-16, about 5:15 p.m. - ice across river.

Linea predicted that the ice would break on April 17.  It may have finished breaking this afternoon/evening, but it looks like Linea may have the honours.  Luckily I didn’t bet any money.

And still holding …

Tuesday, April 14th, 2009

Tuesday April 14, at noon.

North Saskatchewan River, 2009-04-14, ice is holding

The ice is holding, but it’s turning black, and there are open patches along the shore.  I’m still holding out for an April 15 ice break-up.